if it retraces 50%, there's a 60% chance that it will at least test the high
if it retraces 2/3rd, it's only 50% change that it will test the high (esp if it closes on a bar bar on its low on the 78th? extension? i.e, in the 2/3s zone...)
[wait, wouldn't this mean that that would be a good time to open an iron condor? once you get a 2/3rds pullback on the daily?]
20 or more bars,
pullback = less than 20 bars, prob that bull trend will cont
trading range = 20 or more bars, prob for bulls falls to about 50%, prob for bears falls to about 50%
[again, seems like you'd want to iron condor into one of these, where the odds actually are 50/50,
it would also mean that you should scalp the high if it's coming from a situation in which there was an almost total pullback]
markets 80% of the time continue to do what they've been doing
you pay for better probability for worse r:r
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wQ5CRIQ6mc
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